A historian and pollster known as the “Nostradamus” of polling revealed that he has “never experienced” so much “hate” in an election cycle.
Allan Lichtman, who has correctly predicted the results of nine out of 10 presidential elections since 1984, says he still stands by his prediction that Vice President Kamala Harris will win the 2024 presidential election despite what recent polls show.
As Elon Musk is being accused of voter fraud and poll tampering to falsely inflate Trump's popularity, the numbers for Vice President Harris don't need to be falsified.
Lichtman's method for forecasting the race so accurately is known as “The Keys to the White House,” a system he devised with the Russian academic Vladimir Keilis-Borok in 1981.
His method looks at 13 factors, from the president’s party’s standing in the House of Representatives to the health of the domestic economy; any record of scandal, social unrest, or foreign policy disasters during their tenure; and the comparative charisma of the two candidates to decide the victor, applying “true” or “false” designations to each category.
While conceding there's always room for an exception, “My prediction has not changed,” Lichtman said on his YouTube channel. “I have frequently made my prediction correctly in defiance of the polls, it’s based on 160 years of precedent.”
Maintaining his predictions are non-partisan, Lichtman says his predictions have "stood the test of time, my indicators have always been right,” he said. “The keys are very objective and quantitative and very robust,” Lichtman said.