With Sanders Out, Biden Is Now The Presumptive Democratic Nominee — How’s He Stack Up Against Trump?
The debate can go on and on over whether Democrats made the right decision, but for better or for worse, former Vice President Joe Biden is now the presumptive nominee for the party to run for president against Donald Trump in the general election.
Biden rose to this role after Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders announced on Wednesday that he’d be dropping out of the race.
“I want to express to each of you my deep gratitude for helping to create an unprecedented grassroots political campaign that has had a profound impact in changing our nation,” Sanders said in his video message to supporters. He also called his rival, Biden, a “decent man.”
Today I am suspending my campaign. But while the campaign ends, the struggle for justice continues on. https://t.co/MYc7kt2b16
— Bernie Sanders (@BernieSanders) April 8, 2020
So where does Biden stand when it comes to facing off against Trump right now? We have only the polls to rely on at this point, which are snapshots in time of how the electorate feels about the race.
As of right now, whether you look at the national polls or the Electoral College, it’s looking pretty good for the former vice president.
Biden’s Real Clear Politics average of polling data in a hypothetical matchup against Trump shows that he has a pretty commanding lead.
He doesn’t have the majority support of Americans at the moment, but his margin against the incumbent president is decently strong, with an average of the past 10 polls they’ve aggregated showing him ahead of Trump by a difference of 49.7 percent to 43.3 percent.
National polls are one thing — but where it counts most is the Electoral College. On that front, Biden is doing well, too.
In three swing states (Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Arizona) where Trump won in 2016 by slim margins, Biden leads the president by at least 3 points in the Real Clear Politics averages — and in some cases, more. In two more states (Wisconsin and Florida), the margin between the two candidates is within 3 points or less, but the most recent polls in both states show Biden ahead.
Put together, those three states where Biden’s lead is a commanding one at the moment represent 47 Electoral College votes — more than enough for the former vice president to win the election, if the map stays the same everywhere else. With Wisconsin and Florida in play, Biden could win with a larger Electoral College victory than Trump saw in 2016.
All of this, of course, is speculation at the moment. People’s opinions may change over the next few months, and the states that appear to be in Biden’s column could become more difficult to win as a result. But as of this moment, it appears that this election is the former vice president’s to lose.