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Who Will Win The Iowa Caucuses? It’s Anyone’s Bet, As The Race Tightens Among Four Candidates

Former Vice President Joe Biden is currently in fourth place when it comes to who will win the Democratic Party’s Iowa Caucuses early next month, according to a CNN/Des Moines Register poll that was released on Friday.

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In any other circumstance, that’d be a terrifying place for any candidate to be in. Yet Biden’s fourth-place standing isn’t as bad as one might think, as he’s only 5 points away from being in the first place spot.

That’s how tight the race for the nation’s first-in-the-nation nominating contest truly is. Four candidates, all within a few points of one another. With a debate set to occur in just a few days (with fewer candidates on the stage), it’s still a wide-open contest.

Biden, as mentioned, is in fourth place, with 15 percent support in Iowa among Democratic voters. In third place, South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg comes in with 16 percent support, while Sen. Elizabeth Warren garners 17 percent for the second place position. In first place in Iowa, the only candidate breaking the 20 percent mark, is Sen. Bernie Sanders.

But it might be worth also looking at who voters’ first AND second choices are, given that the Iowa caucuses is a different setup than traditional primary voting. In the Iowa caucus (on the Democratic Party side, at least), voters whose preferred candidates don’t reach a threshold of 15 percent must support someone else, according to a Vox report on the matter. The delegates are only divvied up once all the candidates who remain reach that threshold.

According to the same CNN/Des Moines Register poll, the totals change slightly for candidates when voters’ first and second choices are considered. Warren comes out in first place in that situation, with 33 percent support, while Sanders (32 percent) comes in second, Buttigieg (31 percent) third, and Biden (27 percent) remains in fourth place.

The final debate between Democrats before the Iowa caucuses commence will be on Tuesday, January 14.