Who Will Replace Angela Merkel? German Election ‘Too Close to Call’

The race to succeed Angela Merkel as German chancellor remains wide open ahead of a national election on Sunday, according to the latest polls. Predictions on Saturday point to the center-left Social Democrats (SPD) holding a small but narrowing lead over Merkel’s party, the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU). The closeness of the race coupled with Germany’s complicated voting system means it could take some time before a winning coalition is formed and the ultimate victor is known.

Merkel has been a symbol of stability in Europe since she took on the role of chancellor in 2005. But after almost 16 years in the top job, she will step down once it becomes clear who her successor will be. Environmental concerns and economic worries have emerged as key issues in campaigning, with the former fueled by the deadly floods that devastated parts of Germany this summer. According to the latest polls, the Social Democrats are polling at 25.2% and could gain 4.7 percentage points compared to the 2017 national elections. This lead could mean a reversal of a 20-year-long downward trend for the Social Democrats. Over the past two decades, the party has lost around half of its voters.

Angela Merkel

The Christian Democrats are trailing several percentage points behind the SPD at around 22.4%, polls indicate. This could mean a loss of 10.5 percentage points compared to the 2017 national elections, and 19.1 percentage points compared to the 2013 elections. The Greens are currently polling at 15.9%, in third place. However, the ecological party could record the strongest growth of all parties in the next federal election, with a potential gain of 7.5 percentage points compared to the last national elections in 2017.

The SPD and CDU, the two largest parties in German politics, have been sharing power under Merkel’s fourth term as chancellor.
CDU leader Armin Laschet, the party’s candidate to be the next chancellor and premier of North Rhine-Westphalia, held a final campaign rally with Merkel in Aachen on Saturday. Addressing the crowds, Merkel said Sunday’s election was all about Germany remaining “stable” and ensuring “that the youth have a future and we can live in prosperity.” She added that Laschet had shown throughout his political life that he could pursue it “with passion and heart.”

Ultimately, Germany could see another woman succeed Merkel. The Greens’ leader, Annalena Baerbock, has emerged as a contender for chancellor and potential kingmaker in the coalition negotiations expected to follow Sunday’s vote.

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