[WATCH] U.S. Could See A ‘Sharp Decline’ In COVID19 By July

If vaccinations continue at high rates and people wear masks and physically distance when necessary, according to projections published Wednesday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the U.S. could be through the worst of the Covid-19 pandemic by July.

The projections are not definitive, and can certainly change if people’s behavior changes in the next few months. However, they do fall in line with President Joe Biden’s assertion that the United States will be able to reach some level of “normal” by Independence Day.

Photo by Andrew Renneisen/Getty Images

CDC director Dr. Rochelle Walensky said the models suggest “an even faster decline if more people get vaccinated sooner.”

“The results remind us that we have a path out of this and models, once predicting grim news, now offer reasons to be quite hopeful for what the summer may bring,” Walensky said during a briefing Wednesday.

The projections also suggest a reduction in Covid-19-related deaths, mainly because a majority of those most vulnerable — those over age 65 — have been vaccinated.

The models are based on what has already been observed during the pandemic, combined with the scientific understanding of how the virus spreads and is impacted by mitigation measures. Those factors put together gave modelers a good indication of what might occur under four different scenarios, accounting for vaccination rates and behaviors. The models all projected that cases would continue to rise in April and peak sometime in May; in fact, cases in the U.S. have fallen since mid-April. The seven-day average of cases is now around 48,000 daily cases.

Dr. Anthony Fauci appeared on the TODAY Show to speak about President Biden’s vaccination goals and whether or not he agrees with the July 4th promise.


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