fbpx

Trump’s Re-election Chances Versus Biden Look Grim, 2020 Presidential Election Prognosticators Say

Amid the understandable concerns regarding the spread of coronavirus across the nation (and the globe), there is still a presidential election to give consideration to.

Gage Skidmore/Flickr; Gage Skidmore/Wikimedia

According to two elections analyses websites, President Donald Trump’s re-election chances are looking pretty grim.

CNN reports that two prediction sites, the Rothenberg Report and the Cook Political Report, have Trump’s presumptive Democratic opponent, Joe Biden, leading him in the Electoral College math, although by both sites’ counts, it’s not a “sure thing” for Biden at this point.

“The President is an underdog now in his bid for a second term. That doesn’t mean he can’t win,” Stu Rothenberg wrote. “It simply means that he is in a more difficult place than he was before, in part because Democrats have united behind a consensus candidate who has potentially broad appeal.”

Amy Walter, of the Cook Political Report, says pretty much the same thing. She points out that Biden has 232 lean, likely, or solid Electoral College votes backing him up at this time, while Trump has about 204 Electoral Votes in his column.

“There are six states (and one congressional district) in Toss-Up: Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nebraska’s 2nd district,” Walter says. “Those add up to 102 Electoral votes.”

A candidate needs to reach 270 Electoral College votes to win the presidency outright.

National polling also shows Trump is in trouble. An Emerson poll from late last week found that, among the national electorate, 53 percent of Americans prefer Biden to be the next president, while 47 percent want Trump to serve a second term. In polling that pitted Trump against Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, the numbers were essentially the same.

According to Real Clear Politics’ average of polling data, Trump is behind Biden nationally an average of 7 points as of Tuesday afternoon.