President Donald Trump’s re-election chances are getting slimmer and slimmer, if data from recent polling is to be believed.
According to reporting from Axios, Trump’s approval ratings in every battleground state has shifted by significant margins. In all but two of the battleground states where he once had positive numbers, Trump’s approval ratings have gone negative.
The data, which are based on polling from Morning Consult, demonstrate a monumental shift from where Trump stood at the beginning of his term.
In three states Trump won in 2016, for instance, the president is now viewed in a disfavorable light. At the start of his term, Trump had net-positive approval ratings in Wisconsin (+6), Michigan (+7), and Pennsylvania (+10).
Presently, those numbers are now in the red. In Wisconsin, his net-approval rating is -14. In Michigan, it is -11 points, and in Pennsylvania, it’s -8. Those three states in particular, which collectively represent 46 Electoral College votes, were seen as critical wins for Trump in the 2016 election, and likely necessary for him to win again in 2020 if he wants to see a repeat of his electoral successes.
But in other states, Trump has seen sinking approval numbers also, including in Florida where he now has a -1 net approval rating, a 23-point shift from the start of his term, when he had a +22 net approval rating. In Arizona, his net rating is -7 points, a 26-point shift from the start of his presidency. In Ohio, Trump once boasted a +14 net approval rating. Presently, Trump’s approval in the Buckeye State is a -6, a 20-point swing in the wrong direction for the president.
An analysis of recent polls by Bruce Gyory:
"If Trump stays on his present course, he will lose next November, and political historians will more than likely come to see the watershed moment as August 2019….Trump is on the verge of losing the country."https://t.co/HBfVvvIKEG
— Bill Kristol (@BillKristol) August 20, 2019
In states that are typical “gimmes” for Republican candidates in presidential elections, Trump is also seeing significant losses. Though his net approval rating is still positive in Texas, it’s in danger of going further south if the current trend continues. Trump had a net approval rating of +21 in that state in January 2017, but presently it sits at just +6 points. In Georgia, he once had a net +18 approval rating; now, it’s just +2 points.
It’s possible for Trump to win some of these states again in 2020, even if his approval ratings are in the red. The incumbent president merely needs to outperform his challenger in the race rather than win positive approval ratings from voters in order to retain the office.
Still, the numbers are discouraging for the Trump campaign, as they signal a narrow path for him to win re-election a year from now. As more states trend into or closer to the red, the campaign will have to focus more of its resources on states that could have been counted on, which makes it more difficult for Trump to win the more competitive battleground states.
Trump has in the past dismissed polls as being “fake” when they haven’t shown him positive numbers. Earlier this month, he went after Fox News for a poll they conducted, which demonstrated he had a net negative approval rating across the nation overall, Mediaite reported.