Trump’s Approval Rating In 11 Swing States Shows He’s In Deep, Deep Trouble
With eight months remaining until the general election, we’re set to see poll after poll after poll telling us what type of future we might expect to see.
A lot could change in that time. But as of right now, it’s not looking good for President Donald Trump, as far as his re-election chances are going.
Trump will seek to defend the same Electoral College map he won so narrowly in 2016, particularly in the three states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Those three states, however, are trending away from him as a candidate, at least in terms of his approval/disapproval ratings.
Here’s where he stands in those states, according to data from Civiqs:
- Wisconsin: 47 percent approval, 51 percent disapproval (-4 points)
- Michigan: 43 percent approval, 54 percent disapproval (-11 points)
- Pennsylvania: 45 percent approval, 52 percent disapproval (-7 points)
Those three states were key to his win, and he’ll have to work extra hard this time around to defeat the eventual Democratic nominee.
But it’s not just those states he has to worry about. Looking beyond the Midwest, Trump’s approval rating is sinking in states he won elsewhere, as well as is in states that are Republican strongholds from elections in the past.
In Georgia, Trump has a net approval of -7 points, which means more people disapprove of him than do approve. In Arizona, his net approval is -6 points. In North Carolina, he’s at -8 points in his approval rating. And in Florida, things remain close, just as they were in 2016 — but his net approval is -3 points.
Things are even bad for him in Texas, where, while he has a net approval rating in the positive column, it’s not by much — just 2 points.
This means, in addition to trying to secure states in the Midwest, Trump will also have to defend other states he won — plus, he’ll likely have to campaign (and thus, use his time and resources) in states that are traditionally seen as “gimme’s” for Republicans.
These two maps show just how dire things for Trump will be, based on his approval ratings.
The first map, compiled using these numbers from Civiqs and overlayed on images from 270ToWin.com, shows 11 states that might be considered “swing states” in 2020, again using Trump’s approval/disapproval statuses within those areas:
Dark blue areas indicate that Trump’s approval/disapproval rating is in negative territory by 5 points or more. Light blue indicates it’s in negative territory, but within a 5-point difference. The light red state, Texas, is in positive approval rating status, but within a 5-point difference as well.
Now, some of these states already voted for the Democratic candidate in 2016, and were likely to vote Dem in 2020 as well. But a number of the states above that are in “dark blue” territory were in “light red” territory in the previous election’s results.
Let’s suppose the eventual Democratic nominee — whether that’s Joe Biden or Bernie Sanders at this point — is able to capitalize on Trump’s poor approval ratings in those states. Here’s what the Electoral College might look like if that’s the case:
That’s a huge change from what was seen in 2016.
In fact, if this map holds true, it represents a win for the Democrat of 350 Electoral College votes, with Trump winning just 188.
Now, it’s more likely to be the case that the election will be much closer than this. A president with negative approval ratings changes their strategy, away from promoting themselves and toward making the other candidate look like a worse option.
But the map does indicate one thing to be true: President Trump has a hard road ahead of him. And the amount of territory he has to defend is expanding, not contracting, making it even more difficult for him to pull off another surprising victory like he did just four years ago.
Featured image credit: The White House/Wikimedia