President Donald Trump won a number of key “swing” states in 2016, including Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan, rust belt states that helped propel him to an Electoral College victory in spite of losing the national popular vote.
In 2020, the Trump campaign hopes to repeat on those successes, and possibly even expand. But re-taking those states could be a problem, particularly because, at least for one of those states in particular, the incumbent president is failing to win over a very important demographic: women.
According to an MLive/Baldwin Wallace University poll recently conducted in Michigan, 53 percent of women in the state say they already plan to vote for whoever wins the Democratic nomination rather than support Trump for re-election this coming November. Trump’s support from women voters, meanwhile, is dismal: only 27 percent are committed to voting for him.
There’s good and bad news from those numbers. In 2016, that same number, 53 percent, voted against Trump anyway, according to exit poll data, opting to support his Democratic opponent in that year’s race, Hillary Clinton.
But Trump had much higher support from women in that race, too, than the current MLive poll shows — 42 percent of female voters backed him in 2016.
The MLive poll demonstrates that there’s a large chunk of undecideds still left to claim. Undoubtedly, some will back Trump up, but even if a small amount of those undecided female voters back the Democrat in the fall, it’s a net-loss in that demographic for Trump.
Poll: Michigan women unlikely to support Trump in 2020 https://t.co/aatDlpHFDT
— MLive.com News (@michigannews) January 22, 2020
Given that Trump only won Michigan overall by 0.2 percent, any shift away from him is going to cause some figurative heartburn problems for members of his campaign staff.
Nationally, Trump faces the same problems. According to an Economist/YouGov poll taken earlier this month, only 38 percent of women voters across the country are committed to voting for Trump again. That’s a drop, albeit not a significant one, from what he won in 2016 (41 percent).
Still, even a small shift signals problems for Trump, who didn’t win the popular vote, and just barely won the Electoral College by courting 112,000 votes in three states — accounting for 0.08 of the total votes cast across the nation. In short, even the slightest deviation away from Trump could spell disaster in key swing states like Michigan.