Trump Is Currently Losing A Pair Of Must-Win States To Biden — And His Reelection Chances Overall Are Shrinking

Ten days ago, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders endorsed former Vice President Joe Biden to be the Democratic Party’s nominee for president, to run against current incumbent Donald Trump.

Gage Skidmore/Flickr; Gage Skidmore/Wikimedia

Polling numbers from two states, in particular, show that Biden is off to a good start.

According to a pair of Fox News polls, one from Michigan and one from Pennsylvania, Trump is losing to the challenger Biden by a sizable, outside-the-margin-of-error range.

In Michigan, for instance, if the election for president were held today, Trump would lose to Biden by a margin of 41 percent to the former vice president’s 49 percent.

In Pennsylvania, the split is similar: Trump loses to Biden, 42 percent to 50 percent.

The two states are significant because they helped to propel Trump to win the 2016 presidential race against Hillary Clinton. Together, they account for 36 Electoral College votes.

If all things other were similar to the last election, it would mean Trump would still win the Electoral College, but just by the hair of his chin, with 270 EC votes going for him and 268 going to Biden. However, there are signs of fissures elsewhere, and Trump is doing poorly in a number of other states he won in 2016.

According to Taegan Goddard’s Electoral College map, the following states are considered “battleground” or swing states (states in blue were won by Clinton in 2016, states in red were won by Trump):

  • Arizona
  • Minnesota
  • Wisconsin
  • Michigan
  • Texas
  • Florida
  • Georgia
  • North Carolina
  • Pennsylvania
  • New Hampshire
  • Maine *

As you can see, the map that Trump has to defend is much larger than the number of states Biden has to win that Clinton did in 2016. Additionally, numbers from Real Clear Politics for all three states highlighted in blue show that Trump is losing to Biden in those areas already.

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