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Some Experts Seeing Signs of Hope As COVID Cases Fall

New coronavirus cases are continuing to decline, and some experts are cautiously optimistic that the virus will continue to wane even into the fall and winter. The next few months are highly uncertain, and some localized outbreaks are all but guaranteed. But the U.S. is at least moving in the right direction again.

The U.S. is now averaging roughly 134,000 new cases per day, a 10% drop over the past two weeks. Meanwhile, deaths have increased by about 33% over the past two weeks, to an average of about 2,000 per day. Deaths are a lagging indicator, and

those are the last numbers to go up when a new wave begins, and the last to go down when that wave is receding.

A healthcare worker administers a dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech Covid-19 vaccine to a teenager at West Philadelphia High School in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, U.S., on Tuesday, August 4, 2021. The White House has called upon schools, community organizers, and even the Gen Z pop star Olivia Rodrigo to double down on pitching the vaccine’s benefits before the school year starts. Photographer: HannahBeier/Bloomberg

The pace of new infections, relative to each state’s population, is getting worse in 27 states and improving in 23. Tennessee has seen the biggest drop in new cases over the past two weeks, while Montana has seen the biggest spike.

While the U.S. has seen brief moments of progress before, they’ve never lasted long. But some experts believe the pandemic may actually keep shrinking over the next several months. The NIH is looking at models that suggest cases may be down to about 15,000 per day by November, STAT reports. Between vaccinations and people who have already been sick, the number of Americans with some immune protection from the virus is pretty high.

Vaccinations for kids will also help contain the virus. Children ages 5–11 could become eligible for vaccinations in the next several weeks, according to NIAID Director Dr. Anthony Fauci.

 



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