NY Times Voting Expert Lays Out the Uphill Battle Perdue and Loeffler Face on Election Day

The way people vote changed drastically in 2020. Thanks to the Coronavirus, there was much more access to the voting booth than usual. Democrats voted in record numbers and sent Joe Biden to the White House with over 80 million votes.

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And the ease with which people could vote has carried over into 2021. In Georgia, there is a looming special election that will determine senate control. And again, Democratic leaning voters are voting early in huge numbers. In a Sunday morning Twitter thread, Nate Cohn laid out the uphill battle likely facing Kelly Loeffler and David Perdue.

The New York Times election expert began, “Let’s stipulate for this whole discussion that absolutely no one has changed their vote since the election. If so, then our estimate is that Ossoff will amass a lead of around 350k out of the advance vote, including what he’ll net out of ~100k absentee votes still to arrive.”

Cohn continued, “So now Perdue would need 350k votes to fight back to a tie. What would that look like? Well it would entail something more than Nov., when he won by 218k votes on Election Day with nearly 62% of the mjr vote. Of course, the strong Dem turnout means there are more GOPers left now.”

The pollster concluded, “The challenge for Perdue, of course, is that this is a 2020 general election turnout model. So far, Democrats and esp. Black voters have plainly outperformed the general election in the early vote. If they outperform on Election Day too, then Perdue needs a greater turnout.”



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