Nate Silver: Donald Trump’s Fate Is Not Sealed; A Lot Can Happen In 100 Days

Nate Silver, founder of data and statistical analysis site FiveThirtyEight is warning against assuming that the 2020 election is settled. He says that while things don’t look good for Donald Trump right now, a lot can still happen in the 100 days before the election.

Nate Silver: Donald Trump fate not sealed
[Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images]

Appearing on ABC‘s This Week, Silver said that COVID-19 is a major factor in this election. Saying that there are currently a lot of unknowns with regard to the pandemic, and what will become of it by November, Silver continued. “So, how do you account for this in an election model? Basically, you add more uncertainty. We found that historically when there are a lot of major news events and that kind of disruptions, an election becomes harder to predict.”

If the pandemic continues to worsen, Silver hints the election could be a very dim prospect for Donald Trump. However, “a turnaround in the COVID situation by the fall could make the election more competitive.”

On FiveThirtyEight, the current average of polling results has Joe Biden at 49.9%, and Donald Trump at 41.9%.

Donald Trump has claimed that polls that show him in a negative light are fake, and intended to dampen voter enthusiasm, and that internal polling is much better.

As for the pandemic, Trump’s administration promising another round of stimulus checks, Trump has made some effort to appear to promote mask-wearing (by tweeting a photo of himself and saying mask-wearing is very patriotic), and the president claimed last week that a vaccine would be available by the end of the year.

On the other hand, the CDC is still logging thousands of cases and hundreds of deaths per day, and there’s no official timeline for a vaccine.

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