Nate Silver: Donald Trump’s Fate Is Not Sealed; A Lot Can Happen In 100 Days
Nate Silver, founder of data and statistical analysis site FiveThirtyEight is warning against assuming that the 2020 election is settled. He says that while things don’t look good for Donald Trump right now, a lot can still happen in the 100 days before the election.
Appearing on ABC‘s This Week, Silver said that COVID-19 is a major factor in this election. Saying that there are currently a lot of unknowns with regard to the pandemic, and what will become of it by November, Silver continued. “So, how do you account for this in an election model? Basically, you add more uncertainty. We found that historically when there are a lot of major news events and that kind of disruptions, an election becomes harder to predict.”
.@NateSilver538 says "I do not buy that Trump's fate is sealed" from COVID.
“A lot could change in the next 100 days. Things could get worse for the president. But a turnaround in the COVID situation in the fall could make the election more competitive.” https://t.co/CEC06V3sml pic.twitter.com/E7m1oQUUEO
— This Week (@ThisWeekABC) July 26, 2020
If the pandemic continues to worsen, Silver hints the election could be a very dim prospect for Donald Trump. However, “a turnaround in the COVID situation by the fall could make the election more competitive.”
On FiveThirtyEight, the current average of polling results has Joe Biden at 49.9%, and Donald Trump at 41.9%.
Donald Trump has claimed that polls that show him in a negative light are fake, and intended to dampen voter enthusiasm, and that internal polling is much better.
…Crooked Hillary Clinton in 2016. They are called SUPPRESSION POLLS, and are put out to dampen enthusiasm. Despite 3 ½ years of phony Witch Hunts, we are winning, and will close it out on November 3rd! pic.twitter.com/4IhuLUZjsv
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) June 8, 2020
.@FoxNews gladly puts up the phony suppression polls as soon as they come out. We are leading in the REAL polls because people are sick & tired of watching the Democrat run cities, in all cases, falling apart. Also, now 96% Approval Rating in the Republican Party. Another 2016!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) July 5, 2020
Sorry to inform the Do Nothing Democrats, but I am getting VERY GOOD internal Polling Numbers. Just like 2016, the @nytimes Polls are Fake! The @FoxNews Polls are a JOKE! Do you think they will apologize to me & their subscribers AGAIN when I WIN? People want LAW, ORDER & SAFETY!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) June 29, 2020
As for the pandemic, Trump’s administration promising another round of stimulus checks, Trump has made some effort to appear to promote mask-wearing (by tweeting a photo of himself and saying mask-wearing is very patriotic), and the president claimed last week that a vaccine would be available by the end of the year.
On the other hand, the CDC is still logging thousands of cases and hundreds of deaths per day, and there’s no official timeline for a vaccine.