Back in 2016, the vast majority of polls ahead of Election Day showed Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton leading Republican nominee Donald Trump in nearly every swing state, albeit narrowly. This, of course, did not manifest into a Clinton victory. Instead, Trump managed to eke out wins in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin – handing him 46 Electoral College votes, and thus, the presidency. The margin across the three rust belt states was just 77,000 votes.
Filmmaker Michael Moore, a native resident of Flint, Michigan, was one of a handful of people across the political spectrum who saw what was happening, and he correctly predicted that Trump, not Clinton, would be elected.
Now, Moore is warning that the same thing is happening in 2020, despite former Vice President Joe Biden’s sizeable leads in swing state polling.
In an interview with Hill.TV’s Rising on Thursday, Moore said that polls are misleading because of how Trump voters think, and that there are more of them out there than surveys indicate, particularly in Michigan.
“It’s awful news that Biden’s ahead by seven points in Michigan, and I have to fight against this constantly. I need to remind people that the poll back in July said at that point that Biden was ahead in Michigan by 16 points. Trump has cut that in half. Trump has tightened virtually every one of these swing states to the point where this morning… Biden’s five points ahead in Wisconsin. He’s maybe three points ahead in Florida, two points ahead in Arizona. Listen, don’t believe these polls, first of all” Moore told hosts Saagar Enjeti and Krystal Ball.
“Second of all,” Moore continued, “the Trump vote is always being undercounted, the pollsters, when they actually call a real Trump voter, the Trump voter’s very suspicious of the ‘Deep State’ calling them and asking them who they’re voting for. It’s all fake news to them, remember. It’s not an accurate count. I think the safe thing to do – I’m just saying from my experience as a Michigander – whatever they’re saying the Biden lead is, cut it in half, right now, in your head. Cut it in half, and now you’re within the four-point margin of error. That’s how close this is. That’s how desperately close this is.”
Moore went on to say that while he has “no idea” what will happen on Election Day, writing Trump off would be a huge mistake.
“People keep asking me ‘what do you think is gonna happen, because in 2016… four months, five months before the election, I said that Trump’s going to win and he’s going to win by winning Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania,” Moore said.
“And that got me no free entrances to casinos by the way,” he joked. “It hasn’t done me any good but now they expect me to know what happens next Tuesday and of course, I don’t know, none of us know. But I wake up every morning with the assumption that Trump believes he’s going to win and that’s good enough for me. If he thinks he’s going to win, then I think he’s going to win.”
Moore said that he is “going to act every minute of today and the rest of the day until I fall asleep after midnight, I am going to be working to make sure he doesn’t win.”
Moore likened Trump to an “evil genius” for managing to pull off his 2016 victory over Clinton.
“He’s already done it. He’s already fooled everybody and everybody must act right now as if this could happen again. And if it does happen again, game over,” Moore concluded.
Four days until the election.
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Brandon is a political writer for the Hill Reporter specializing in current events, breaking news, and scientific discovery. Brandon holds a Bachelor of Music degree from Indiana University. He lives in New York City.