Two polls released within the past week find that Americans would prefer Democrats remain in control of the House of Representatives — at least, in this moment in time.
Polling on such questions can be difficult to decipher, especially since there’s more than a year until the 2020 general election. Still, taking a look at what’s happening at this point is important, at least for political insiders, to give them an idea of what chances they have, and what changes they must make to their own platforms, in order to court more voters.
For Republicans, the news is rather dire, demonstrating that pluralities in both polls would prefer Democrats stay in power.
A Politico/Morning Consult poll, conducted between October 11 to the 13, found that 45 percent of Americans would prefer voting for the Democratic candidate in their House district. Meanwhile, only 36 percent of Americans say that their preference would be for the Republican candidate.
Meanwhile, in an Economist/YouGov poll, conducted from October 13 to the 15, Democrats come out on top again, with 49 percent of Americans saying they’d vote for a generic Democrat for Congress. Thirty-nine percent said they would want the Republican candidate in their district to win.
Again, such predictions could change within a year’s time. However, 2018 provides some insights into how much these polls may actually come close to the final outcome in the next election cycle.
Congressional generic ballot at this point before 2018 was 46.6%D/38.8%R & no-one can argue 2018 was a good year for Rs. Right now, generic ballot is showing 46.6%D/40.3%R. Signs pointing in not-great direction for 2020 Rep Congressional elections. (3/3) https://t.co/pp58GzSufz
— Mark Jewett (@markjewett2) October 17, 2019
According to Real Clear Politics, in November of 2017, one year out from the last midterm election, most polls predicted, on average, a win for Democrats of about 9 or 10 percentage points. When the 2018 midterms actually happened, Democrats ended up defeating Republicans, according to nationwide totals, by a total of about 8.4 percent.
Another metric shows Democrats in good shape at this time for 2020: fundraising numbers. A report from Politico demonstrates that the 44 most vulnerable Democrats in the House have raised almost $60 million between them.
The incumbent advantage is already a big disadvantage for most challengers, but facing that kind of dollar amount raised could prove very difficult for Republican candidates hoping to unseat their districts’ Democrats.