Law Professor Laurence Tribe Tweets Dire 2020 Election Warning For Dems
Monday morning law professor Laurence Tribe tweeted information to remind Democrats that there’s no room for complacency about the 2020 U.S. presidential election. Sharing stats and data, he warned that investors and gamblers are still expecting a Trump win. With the current pandemic raising questions about voting, it’s a good time for voters to be considering their access options in advance.
Tribe, who was President Obama’s law professor and is a vocal critic of Trump, tweeted Monday to share that gamblers and investors are all still expecting a Trump win.
Money managers still expect Trump to keep the White House in November. In a late April survey of U.S.-based investors with at least $1 million of assets, UBS found that 52% think Trump will win.
The world's most popular betting destinations still show Trump as the clear favorite.
— Laurence Tribe (@tribelaw) May 11, 2020
The UBS data he cites (pdf) actually shows investors planning to vote for Joe Biden by a small margin (53%, with 47% for Trump) but setting their expectations for Trump to win (52% of investors surveyed predict a Trump victory). These same investors say Trump would be better for the economy, but that Biden is better for healthcare and emergency management, suggesting that, as of the end of April, investors were, by a small margin, making healthcare and emergency management a priority over economy
As for the gambling data, Odds Shark currently favors Trump, with 64.29% odds of Trump remaining in office. However, the site points out that a lot of factors can still change odds, such as choice of running mate. Currently, for example, the COVID-19 pandemic and Trump’s response to it could have an effect, as could the timing of a second wave of the virus.
One influencing factor that the populace does have some control over is voter turnout. In 2016, Business Insider reported, right before the election, that turnout has a major impact on outcome — Republicans are more likely to vote, and if everyone voted, Democrats would win more often. Trump echoed this sentiment in March, saying, as The Guardian reported, that if voter reforms including voting by mail, same-day voter registration, and easy voting access were enacted, “…you’d never have a Republican elected in this country again.”
There’s currently a significant demand for mail-in voting to be available to every voter, as it currently is to deployed military members and voters in some states. Next Gen America is circulating a petition for those who want this to be an option for all. Just last month, NBC reported that 58% of voters support this move.
With the current coronavirus situation, Trump’s tweeted rants, and his record over the past 3.5 years, a lot of left-leaning voters are assuming that he’s already slated to be a one-term president. Tribe’s tweeted warning, and the stats that back it up, indicate that this isn’t such a sure thing. The presidential election could still go either way, and people whose livelihoods depend on their skill at figuring the odds are — slightly — favoring Trump, for now. There are still factors that could change this, though, and the most easily influenced one is voter turnout.