JPMorgan Estimates 60% Chance Of Recession By 2020
If analysts at JPMorgan are correct, President Donald J. Trump may potentially won his Presidential re-election campaign just ahead of the United States economy falling into a recession.
Bloomberg reports that analysts believe there is a 60% chance the U.S. economy will falter just after the 2020 general election, potentially allowing Trump to tout a strong and stable economy even as the economy is on the brink of sliding into a corrective period.
“JPMorgan’s model includes indicators ranging from consumer and business sentiment to prime-age male labor participation, compensation growth, and durables and structures as a share of gross domestic product,” Bloomberg writes.
If the recession doesn’t hit until 2020, Trump may have already wrestled away another term from his opponent. JPMorgan says there is a 28 percent chance that the recession could hit in 2019 and an 80 percent chance that it surfaces by at least 2021.
President Trump is already suffering from record-low approval ratings during the time of a strong economy with low unemployment numbers.
Trump is running with the “Keep America Great” slogan in 2019, a slogan that will come off naive if the economy begins to very publicly falter.
Many economists agree that the U.S. economy is overdue for a recession which would correct overinflated market conditions.