If the 2020 presidential election were held today (a full year and a few months ahead of schedule, to be sure), current incumbent President Donald Trump would be in a lot of trouble, no matter who the Democrats pick as their eventual nominee.
According to a Quinnipiac University Poll released on Wednesday, Trump is behind five of the top-rated Democratic candidates for president in hypothetical matchups. Among the top four Democrats in the poll, Trump is presently behind by double-digit numbers.
According to the poll:
- Trump is behind former Vice President Joe Biden, by a margin of 38 percent to 54 percent, respectively;
- Trump would also lose to Vermont independent Sen. Bernie Sanders, 39 percent to 53 percent;
- When it comes to his numbers against one of his favorite targets to viscerally attack on Twitter, Trump is behind Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren as well, garnering 40 percent in the poll compared to her 52 percent;
- Trump polls 11 points behind California Sen. Kamala Harris;
- And the president is even behind in the polls when compared to South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg, who leads Trump by 9 points.
The Quinnipiac Poll is typically seen as a reliable measure of public attitudes and opinions. In 2016, a month before the actual elections occurred, it picked former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, the Democrat, as the probable winner of the presidential election popular vote.
Biden/Trump: 54% – 38%
Sanders/Trump: 53% – 39%
Warren/Trump: 52% – 40%
Harris/Trump: 51% – 40%
Buttigieg/Trump: 49% – 40%
— Polling USA (@USA_Polling) August 28, 2019
In October 2018, it predicted that Democrats were the favored party by voters in that year’s midterm contests by 7 percentage points. Democrats went on to win the midterms by 7.9 percent, according to national popular vote figures compiled by NBC News.
What accounts for the huge shift? While some of the Democratic contenders were ahead of Trump before this poll, the big change likely has to do with Americans’ perceptions of how the president has handled the economy. In the last Quinnipiac poll, Trump had a net positive approval rating on the subject. Within this recent poll, however, he has a -3 net rating on the economy.
Overall, Trump’s approval rating among the American public sits at 38 percent, according to Quinnipiac, while 56 percent voice disapproval with how he’s handled himself in office.