Epidemiologist Warns Of Risks From More Contagious COVID-19 Strain

BY Steph Bazzle February 4, 2021

Epidemiologist Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding tried last January to warn the world about how bad COVID-19 was going to get. He was mocked and scolded for being ‘alarmist’ — but he’s been proven right for the past year. Now he’s warning his audience again.

Feigl-Ding: rapid action necessary against covid strain — [Researchers at Aalborg University screen and analyze all positive Danish coronavirus samples for the virus variant cluster B117 from the United Kingdom, in Aalborg, Denmark on January 15, 2021, during the ongoing novel coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic. – The B117 coronavirus strain, which emerged in Britain late last year, has been shown to be between 40 and 70 percent more contagious than variants which have spread previously. (Photo by Henning Bagger / Ritzau Scanpix / AFP) / Denmark OUT (Photo by HENNING BAGGER/Ritzau Scanpix/AFP via Getty Images]

In Twitter threads on Wednesday and Thursday, Dr. Feigl-Ding addressed the B117 strain of the virus, and the shorter contact time in which it’s being contracted. He cited The Globe & Mail, which reported this week that health officials are being forced to redefine ‘close contact’ as the new strain passes between victims more easily.

2) spokeswoman for Ontario Health Minister Christine Elliott said on Sunday that the government has provided interim guidance to the province’s public-health units for screening and tracing contacts of cases associated with COVID-19 variants of concern.

— Eric Feigl-Ding (@DrEricDing) February 3, 2021

4) Contact tracers in York Region are finding that some individuals who have tested positive for the highly contagious variant have been in a retail store for just a few minutes. ⚠️ pic.twitter.com/qdMLGAd2C1

— Eric Feigl-Ding (@DrEricDing) February 3, 2021

It’s not just Canada, either. The B117 strain, first identified in the UK, has already been seen in the U.S., and could be the dominant strain inside a month, according to StatNews. Feigl-Ding addresses this too, noting that it has ‘taken over’ in the UK.

7) the virus is such a beast—suppose we have 1000 cases/day now… with an R=0.86 we could reduce it to 500/day in 2 weeks.

➡️But w/ added contagiousness of B117 variant that has ~60% higher R, in 2 weeks, we’d have 3000 new cases/day instead—3x baseline.

➡️6x vs old strain. pic.twitter.com/wf1FfIbTYe

— Eric Feigl-Ding (@DrEricDing) February 3, 2021

He’s again warning anyone who will listen that a speedy and effective response is necessary to get any kind of control over this outbreak.

9) Denmark is so freaked out by #B117 and other variants that they are now sequencing every single case in the country. That hardcore. https://t.co/gMiJdcc6MC

— Eric Feigl-Ding (@DrEricDing) February 3, 2021

Dr. Feigl-Ding also reiterated an explanation of how ‘close contact’ has been defined for virus tracing purposes, and makes sure that his audience doesn’t mistakenly think that scientists are just learning the virus can travel more than 6 feet.

11) And it was to make contact tracing & quarantining manageable scale. But we have known for a while that the 6 feet (2 meter) rule is not very meaningful if there is aerosol transmission, especially indoors with poor ventilation. The coronavirus is very much airborne folks.

— Eric Feigl-Ding (@DrEricDing) February 3, 2021

13) At this point, with more infectious #B117 variant, it is high time we recognize a new definition of close contact, depending on: masking, indoor/outdoor, time if indoors, ventilation indoors; distance outdoors—and then assign gradients on red, orange, yellow close contacts.

— Eric Feigl-Ding (@DrEricDing) February 3, 2021

He has specifically laid out concerns for schools, calling for masking and for outdoor tents for meals if cafeterias can’t be converted to have sufficient ventilation and distancing for safety.

16) Wedding dinner parties (god forbid) should avoid indoor events too. So crowded school cafeterias cannot be possibly safe — I have seen ZERO evidence or arguments how cafeterias can be safe without major overhaul. Why can’t we construct / assemble more outdoor tents meantime? pic.twitter.com/i7jmRdhP42

— Eric Feigl-Ding (@DrEricDing) February 3, 2021

To be clear though, Dr. Feigl-Ding does suggest that getting kids back in school — safely — is important.

19) And for those who say “just send kids to school for half days without cafeteria lunches or classroom lunches”—that’s not enough schooling for kids for just half day. I1st-12th graders cannot do half days like kindergarteners and get enough education. We need real solutions.

— Eric Feigl-Ding (@DrEricDing) February 3, 2021

21) Another idea if we have school indoor cafeterias, is to either install upper air UV (used in many restaurants that circulates air to ceiling where UV lights are safely pointed), or bring a pair of huge air flow tubes to outside that ventilated the cafeteria at high speed.

— Eric Feigl-Ding (@DrEricDing) February 4, 2021

Throughout 2020, the COVID-19 response in the U.S. was piecemeal and varying. A uniform response may help — Dr. Feigl-Ding also expressed concerns that residents of states that are enacting fewer precautions are able to freely travel and transmit the virus in states that have made a stronger effort.

Florida. Notice all the elderly ladies at the grocery store checkout aisle with zero masks.

Welcome to @RonDeSantisFL’s Florida, plus no travel restriction to anywhere else in America. #COVID19 pic.twitter.com/jCoMIvnAsz

— Eric Feigl-Ding (@DrEricDing) February 4, 2021

Though the new administration has made stronger promises to act swiftly and uniformly, in an effort to unify the U.S. against COVID-19, this new variant is also moving fast, and Feigl-Ding is again warning that if we don’t respond quickly and strongly enough, it will be even more devastating.