Epidemiologist Urges U.S., Vaccinate 1st Dose ASAP, As Virus Mutates
One complication of the rollout of the COVID-19 vaccine is that it requires two doses. Another is that the virus has not been shut down, and is now mutating. A new starin has been identified in 33 countries, and it’s more contagious than the last. Epidemiologist Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding is urging the U.S. to go forward with a plan that would focus on getting the first dose into as many people as possible, and put off the second dose for later.
Dr. Feigl-Ding has been working to communicate his concerns to the public. Tweeting New Year’s Eve, he quoted University of California at San Francisco’s Chair of Medicine, Dr. Bob Wachter, who says his views on the matter have shifted.
VACCINATE 1-DOSE ASAP: “Far better to have 100 million people who are 80% protected than 50 million people who are 95% protected, particularly as we are facing a foe that is getting smarter and nastier.” @UCSF Chair of Medicine ~@Bob_Wachter #COVID19 https://t.co/9V8qbODNOP
— Eric Feigl-Ding (@DrEricDing) December 31, 2020
Wachter says that with the new variant being discovered, and the understanding that the first dose of the vaccine can provide about 80% protection, and the rollout of the vaccine being so much slower than the highest hopes, getting a first dose to as many people as possible might provide more protection for the nation, compared to getting a much smaller number of people both doses.
Here's my back-of-the-envelope math:
– Single shot seems to be about 80% protective after a month
– 2nd shot adds some efficacy (up to 95% protective), and maybe (tho not yet proven) some durability.
– New variant is here, and undoubtedly far more widespread than we know. (3/7)— Bob Wachter (@Bob_Wachter) December 31, 2020
Dr. Feigl-Ding explained that the new variant is more contagious, but doesn’t seem to be more lethal or more severe. However, he warned, this still increases the risk of fatal exposure, since the increased contagion means that more people will likely contract the virus, compared to what would happen if the variant was more severe, but less contagious.
2) US, UK, Turkey, Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Iceland, India, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Jordan, Lebanon, Malta, Netherlands, Norway, Pakistan, Portugal, Singapore, S Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, & UAE.
— Eric Feigl-Ding (@DrEricDing) January 1, 2021
5) we don’t think it’s more severe or lethal of a variant. But a more contagious one will harm more people than one that is only more severe. Nature of exponential growth. https://t.co/MaOjgqUhiW
— Eric Feigl-Ding (@DrEricDing) January 1, 2021
He’s seconding the call for the U.S. to move forward with the proposal to get the first dose of the vaccine to as many people as possible, in the hopes that it will be enough to offer the nation some protection.
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