Elections Expert Dave Wasserman Explains Why SCOTUS Fight Should Help Democrats
Donald Trump has run a mostly flailing campaign. He has tried a number of different attacks on Joe Biden, but none have them will stick. The president’s economy is in terrible shape and he’s completely botched the handling of a pandemic that’s killed 200,000.
So when Ruth Bader Ginsburg passed away last night, it gave Trump the opportunity to talk about something other than his failures. And many in the Republican party saw this as an opportunity to get his campaign back on track. But according to elections expert Dave Wasserman, the SCOTUS fight is more likely to help Democrats.
Wasserman, the editor of the Cook Political Report, shared his thoughts in a Saturday morning Twitter thread. He began, “‘I’ve heard some analysts argue a SCOTUS fight will help Trump by shifting “what 2020 will be about” from his mismanagement of COVID to a more straightforward partisan cage match. That could happen, but I’ve always seen some big risks for Trump in a pre-election SCOTUS fight.”
Namely, the potential for the Roe v. Wade/abortion issue to tear Trump's coalition apart.
Much of his 2016 support came from voters who disliked Hillary Clinton, liked his rhetoric on immigration/trade, but are *pro-choice* – especially secular, blue-collar women.
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) September 19, 2020
The elections expert continued, “Although Trump downplayed abortion in 2016, voters w/ mostly pro-choice attitudes made up more than a fifth of his support in plenty of battleground states: 25% in Iowa – 24% in Florida – 24% in Pennsylvania – 24% in Michigan – 21% in Arizona – 20% in Wisconsin – 20% in Ohio.”
Although Trump downplayed abortion in 2016, voters w/ mostly pro-choice attitudes made up more than a fifth of his support in plenty of battleground states:
25% in Iowa
24% in Florida
24% in Pennsylvania
24% in Michigan
21% in Arizona
20% in Wisconsin
20% in Ohio— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) September 19, 2020
Wasserman concluded his thoughts, “The under-utilized Dem message Rs should be most scared of probably goes something like this: ‘In 2016, Trump promised to drain the swamp. Instead, he became the swamp: he let Mitch McConnell and stock-dumping, ultra-far right GOP senators write his entire domestic agenda.'”
The under-utilized Dem message Rs should be most scared of probably goes something like this:
"In 2016, Trump promised to drain the swamp. Instead, he became the swamp: he let Mitch McConnell and stock-dumping, ultra-far right GOP senators write his entire domestic agenda."
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) September 19, 2020