Dems Who Won Trump Districts In 2018 Are Raking In Campaign Cash For 2020 — Their GOP Challengers, Not So Much
There was some fear last year that impeachment proceedings against President Donald Trump could hurt some Democratic lawmakers, particularly those who had just won in congressional districts in 2018 that Trump had himself won in 2016.
So-called “frontline” Democrats (named for being on the frontlines of the political battles of this year’s congressional races) need not worry as much these days, as campaign contribution numbers seem to show they’re in good shape, on average.
In the first three months of this year, 42 Democratic “frontliners” raised $29 million in campaign cash, averaging to about $685,000 per member. The total cash-on-hand for the average frontliner is a positive sign, too, totaling about $2.3 million per member, Newsweek reported.
Compare those numbers with the Republican challengers these members will be facing, and it’s obvious Democrats have a less-than-worrisome path to retaining the House this year.
The average GOP contender to these Democrats brought in just $212,000 per challenger, just $9 million overall between the lot of them. And the average amount of cash-on-hand that these Republicans have is under $434,000.
While not a perfect harbinger of how well a candidate will or won’t do, campaign fundraising is typically seen as a sign of how an election might go — candidates don’t typically raise more money than their opponents by accident, and a gap as wide as this tends to signal that voters are going to behave a certain way.
The polling seems to confirm it: according to a recent Economist/YouGov poll, Democrats are outpolling Republicans by a margin of 7 points in the generic “which candidate would you vote for to represent you in Congress” question; according to a recent Morning Consult poll, the margin is 8 points in favor of Democrats.
At this point in 2018, Democrats were ahead in the polls on average by about 6.2 percent. They ended up defeating Republicans in the House nationally by a margin of more than 8 points.