When is it comes to Donald Trump’s base, there is not a lot of variety. Nearly every type of voter favors someone other than Trump. The type of voter that does support Trump, white males without college degrees, however, makes up a significant part of the electorate.Donald Trump’s electoral positioning is different in 2020 than it was in 2016. A massive number of suburban white women have turned away from the president both in the 2018 midterms and in 2020 polling. And according to CNN’s Harry Enten, Trump is starting to lose support from white non-college males as well.
In a column for CNN, Enten wrote, “President Donald Trump heads into the debate trailing former Vice President Joe Biden. Trump is the first incumbent to be losing in the polls at this point since George H.W. Bush in 1992. Trump’s obvious goal for the debate is to try and win back some of the white voters without a college degree that he’s clearly lost since 2016.”
Biden continues to eat into Trump's edge among Non-College Whites. Doing ~10 pts than Clinton did in pre-election polls. Biden's best path right now clearly is one of two maps (Clinton states + MI + PA + WI or Clinton states + AZ + MI + NE-2 + WI)… https://t.co/qyZtROqLxS
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) September 26, 2020
The elections expert continued:
“Trump is winning by about 21 points among Whites without a college degree in an average of those polls. That may seem like a lot, but remember that Trump led among this group by about 30 points in the final pre-election polls in 2016. Keep in mind, we’re making an apples-to-apples comparison here. Even if the polls are off by a similar margin as they were in 2016, this exercise takes that into account. There’s real movement going on here among Whites without a college degree.”
The incumbent currently trails Biden by an average margin of 7.2%
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Todd Neikirk is a New Jersey based politics and technology writer. His work has been featured in psfk.com, foxsports.com and Pet Lifestyles Magazine. He enjoys sports, politics, technology and spending time at the shore with his family.