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A Flurry Of Polls Spell Trouble For Trump, Republicans In Congress, In 2020 [Analysis]

There’s a year and 46 days left until the presidential and congressional elections are set to take place. Trying to project what the outcome of those races will be at this time might seem foolish, but there are ample reasons for doing so.

Photo by Alex Wong/Getty Images

For starters, polls this far out aren’t completely out of line with what’s going to eventually happen. In 2018, for instance, an Economist/YouGov poll predicted a 9-point advantage for Democrats in a generic congressional ballot poll. The final outcome of the midterm elections was just above an 8-point advantage for Dems over Republicans.

Second, knowing where things stand now may give us an idea of where the parties are planning to go in the coming months. If one party is presently behind, we can expect a barrage of attacks from them against the other, or, perhaps in a more positive manner, a number of policy ideas they may propose in order to curry favor from the public.

So taking a glance at polls now gives us an idea of where public sentiment is presently standing — and where, unless changes are made by either of the two major political parties, things may stand in November 2020.

As of right now, Republicans’ chances aren’t looking too great.

President Donald Trump’s re-election chances are looking fairly grim. According to a Fox News poll released this week, Trump is losing to every single one of the top four contentious Democratic candidates seeking the party’s nomination.

Former Vice President Joe Biden leads Trump by a 14-point advantage in the poll. Sen. Bernie Sanders is up by 8 points, and Sen. Elizabeth Warren leads Trump by 6 points. Sen. Kamala Harris narrowly beats Trump in a hypothetical race by 2 points.

It’s not looking good for Republicans, either, when it comes to taking back the House of Representatives. If current projections hold true through next year, Democrats are poised to remain in control of that legislative body.

A Morning Consult poll released this month asked which candidate on their ballot voters across the nation would prefer voting for at this time. According to that poll, 44 percent would prefer to vote for the Democrat on their ballot, while 37 percent would like the Republican to win.

Polling on the Senate would be much harder to examine — only a third of the seats in the “upper chamber” are up for grabs each election cycle, so a generic ballot won’t tell us if seats will be won or lost by Republicans next year. However, analysis from the Washington Post’s Paul Waldman suggests Democrats’ chances of taking that house of Congress are getting better, too.

Two Senate races in Georgia — which is becoming a purple state in the deep south — will likely be on the minds of analysts from now until Election Day. So, too, will contests in a number of other states be examined. Waldman explains:

“…reasonable expectations are that there are five possible Democratic pickups (Arizona, Colorado, Maine, North Carolina, and Iowa) — and Georgia makes six. At the moment, no Democratic incumbent looks to be in real danger.”

Even Texas is potentially in play, he said, especially “if Trump is headed for a historic beating” in the presidential race.

A year is the equivalent of a lifetime in politics, but as 2018 demonstrated, it doesn’t necessarily mean a lot will change overall in the preferences of the electorate. Looking at where things stand now, it’s clear that, unless Republicans take drastic measures, Democrats are poised to do well in next year’s contests.



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