40% Chance of Trump Impeachment During First Term, According to Betting Markets
There is no doubt that one of the president’s biggest concerns, besides the pending Mueller report, is the possibility that the new Democratic House will seek to impeach him prior to the 2020 election. With just over two years remaining in his first term, that gives Democrats plenty of time to investigate numerous avenues which very well could lead to impeachment proceedings.
Believe it or not, there is actually a method to bet on the the possibility that Trump will be impeached during his first term in office, thanks to the prediction market known as Predictit. Remember, impeachment occurs when a simple majority of the members in the House of Representatives vote to approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment.
So, what are the current odds of impeachment before January 20, 2021, based off of PredictIt’s supply and demand-style predictive market? 40%
That’s right, if you believe that 40% is too low, you can buy a contract to profit, should Trump’s impeachment occur prior to January 20, 2021. A $4 wager would return $10 if the House votes to impeach the president prior to that date. On the other hand, if you think 40% is too high and Trump won’t be impeached by January 20, 2021, you can buy a $6 contract which pays $10 should an impeachment not take place by that date.
Over the course of the last three months, Trump’s odds of impeachment, according to the PredictIt prediction market, rose as high as 48% in September and dropped as low as 37% earlier this month. Shortly after Democrats won the House in early November, the odds spiked to 47% before gradually falling over the course of the next several days.
Clearly a Democratic House hurt’s Trump’s chances of not being impeached, but ultimately the contents of Mueller’s report will likely determine what path the Democratic majority in the House will take. Apparently those willing to wager money believe that there is a higher likelihood that Democrats will choose to avoid impeaching the president once that report is released.