2020 Barometer Of Polls Suggests Trump Could Lose Texas, Florida
If a recent social media posting from a daily poll tracker is any indication about how the next presidential election is going to go down, it’s not good news for the current incumbent.
Based on tracking conducted by Civiqs, which looks at the approval/disapproval ratings of President Donald Trump across all 50 states and the District of Columbia, the current commander-in-chief is in a very bad position — including in a host of states where Republicans have traditionally done well.
OH MY! 👀
— Matt Rogers 🎙 (@Politidope) August 12, 2019
The bottom map in the tweet above is based on the most recent update in numbers acquired from Civiqs. Each state that is red is where Trump presently has a net positive approval rating; states in blue is where he has a net negative rating.
The map presumes that a net negative rating is an automatic loss for Trump against a yet-to-be-named Democrat. Yet politics rarely behaves that way — a net negative rating could still result in a win for Trump, if the Democratic nominee is more unpopular than he is in certain states, as a prior report from HillReporter.com noted.
However, the map above does point to troubling signs for the Trump campaign — among them, net disapproval ratings in a number of key swing states, not to mention states he won easily in 2016.
Trump has a net disapproval rating in all but one of the “Great Lakes” states. In 2016, he managed to secure the presidency with the help of four of those states (Wisconsin, Ohio, Michigan, and Pennsylvania).
Trump also has net negative ratings in swing states in the south, including in Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida. In the west, his approval is in the negative in states like Arizona and Utah, which went his way in 2016 as well.
Notably, Texas, a state that is a must-win for Trump to attain the crucial 270 Electoral College votes to win the presidency again, has a net negative rating, fitting in the “blue” column in the tweet posted above. Trump’s approval rating in that state is 48 percent, according to Civiqs, and his disapproval rating is 49 percent.
Again, these totals and approval/disapproval ratings aren’t necessarily an accurate predictor of the outcome of 2020’s presidential contest. But it does demonstrate a map that is rapidly shrinking for Trump to win again. States that he won by a slim count in 2016 may not be up for grabs next year, and states he could count on as “sure things” he may have to spend resources on defending.